Social Insurance Administration
Analysis of the development of diagnoses for disability and rehabilitation pensions
11th February 2026
The latest issue of the Icelandic Medical Journal features an article presenting the results of a study by three TR employees. The aim of the article was to analyse the development of diagnoses leading to a disability or rehabilitation pension since the year 2000. The focus was on the diagnoses that increased the most and the development by gender, age and origin.
The study, conducted by Ólafur Ó. Guðmundsson, Chief Medical Officer, Guðmundur Helgi Hjaltalín, Systems Analyst, and Haraldur Jóhannsson, Physician, was based on diagnoses from medical certificates from the years 2000, 2012, and 2024. It was revealed that the diagnoses that increased the most were anxiety and depression, soft tissue disorders, neurodevelopmental disorders (especially ADHD and autism), obesity, pain, malaise and fatigue, stress and burnout, post-viral fatigue syndrome, and the after-effects of COVID-19.
An increase of about 3% since 2000
The results show that the proportion of individuals receiving a disability or rehabilitation pension aged 18-66 increased from 6.3% to 9.4% from 1 January 2000 to 1 January 2024. The relative increase in diagnoses in the study group (a group with the diagnoses that increased the most) was 179%, while in the control group (all other diagnoses), the increase was 26%. The most common diagnoses were anxiety, depression, pain, and neurodevelopmental disorders, with the latter having increased proportionally the most in the younger age group.
Increase early intervention, treatment, and rehabilitation resources
As the proportion of individuals receiving disability and rehabilitation payments is constantly rising, the authors of the study conclude that it is necessary to increase early intervention, treatment, and rehabilitation resources that address health problems that can lead to reduced work capacity. The increase in diagnoses of viral infections, stress, and burnout calls for specialized resources.
The article in Læknablaðið (The Icelandic Medical Journal) can be read here.