These are the findings of a new WHO/Europe study published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, revealing that today’s known COVID-19 death toll in the Region, currently at 2.2 million, might have been as high as 4 million without the vaccines.

Most of those saved were aged 60 or older; the group at highest risk of severe illness and death from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

According to the WHO study, vaccines prevented 542 deaths in Iceland over a 2.5-year period, the majority of which would have occurred in individuals over the age of 60. Among those aged 25 and older, vaccination thus prevented around 70% of the COVID-19 deaths that would have otherwise been expected. The Chief Epidemiologist contributed Icelandic data to the study and is a co-author of the paper.

“The results are clear: COVID-19 vaccination saves lives,” said study author, Dr. Margaux Meslé from the WHO Regional Office for Europe. “Without the enormous vaccination effort, we would have seen many more livelihoods disrupted and families losing the most vulnerable among them.”

The WHO/Europe study found that COVID-19 vaccination saved most lives during the period when the Omicron variant was dominant, from December 2021 to March 2023.

Countries that implemented early vaccination programmes covering large parts of the population – such as Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Malta, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom – saw the greatest benefit in terms of overall number of lives saved.

What does COVID-19 ‘summer wave’ mean?

Over the past few weeks, an uptick in the number of cases has been reported from several countries in the European region: a timely reminder that while COVID-19 is fading into distant memory for millions of people, the virus hasn’t gone away.

While the absolute number of cases are lower than the ‘winter wave’ which peaked in December 2023, COVID-19 infections in the Region this summer are still causing hospitalizations and deaths. Unlike seasonal flu, COVID-19 circulates year-round.

Until this pattern changes, the Region may well experience multiple waves of infection every year, straining health care systems and increasing the chance of people becoming unwell, especially the most vulnerable.

How do I protect myself?

Getting an updated COVID-19 vaccine remains an extremely effective tool to reduce both hospitalizations and deaths in high-risk individuals, especially people who are older but also those that are immune-compromised, those with multiple underlying medical conditions, more at risk for severe disease, pregnant women, and healthcare personnel who may be easily exposed.

To reduce the chances of infection, particularly now when COVID-19 is circulating more, people should consider using masks in crowded indoor spaces. Disposable 'respirator' masks such as an FF2/N95 provide the best protection. If you must interact with someone who has COVID-19, be it family members and or caregivers, using precautions like masks is especially important.

Finally, washing your hands regularly continues to be an effective infection control measure, not just against COVID-19 but also for many other viruses and bacteria.

Taking these kinds of precautions are especially important for vulnerable people who are at higher risk of severe outcomes if they get infected.

If you have common COVID-19 symptoms – e.g. new fever, cough, fatigue, shortness of breath – you may have COVID-19. A COVID test can confirm whether you’re infected and help you understand the level of risk you pose to yourself and others.

In addition, if you are at high risk for a severe outcome from COVID-19, you should contact a healthcare provider regarding monitoring and possible treatment.

Variants in circulation

Globally, JN.1 and its descendants, which include the so-called ‘FLiRT’ variants KP.2 and KP.3, remain the most reported variants. These variants are derived from the Omicron variant BA.2.86. While these variants are not believed to be more severe, they are thought to be more transmissible.

Current vaccines are effective in preventing severe disease and death among new variants and studies are ongoing to ascertain the duration of protection given by booster doses.

The future of COVID-19

WHO emphasizes that although we are now out of the pandemic phase, SARS-CoV-2 continues to infect people and lead to hospitalizations and deaths in the European Region.

As peaks are experienced during summer, it is impossible to predict how the virus will behave for the remainder of 2024. Multiple waves could be possible as the Region transitions from crisis management to sustainable, longer-term disease management.

WHO Europe urges high-risk individuals to follow national COVID-19 vaccine recommendations, and Member States in the Region to continue implementing COVID-19 vaccination, targeting the most vulnerable. The same recommendations apply in Iceland.

The Chief Epidemiologist

See:

• WHO news release 2 August 2024

• Lancet Respiratory Medicine 7 August 2024