Mortality and excess mortality - statistics

-Automatic translation

The Directorate of Health has monitored mortality rates closely during COVID-19. The purpose is, among other things, to assess whether and to what extent mortality rates were different from what could be expected compared to the average of previous years. The Directorate of Health has published a new interactive dashboard on excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality. This is done to prevent information entropy, especially following the monthly publications by EUROSTAT, of figures that have been proven to be incorrect. There are, however, explanations which are detailed below.

New dashboard - excess mortality and COVID-19 deaths

In the dashboard, data on mortality is presented by months, years, and age groups. The mortality rate for each year from the beginning of COVID-19 can be examined in comparison to the four- and eight-year periods before COVID-19, and thus provide evidence of excess mortality.

The dashboard also contains data on COVID-19 deaths, both deaths in which COVID-19 has been recorded as the main (underlying) cause of death and deaths in which COVID-19 has been included on the death certificate but is not the main cause of death. The figures for 2022 and 2023 are provisional and may be subject to change. It is important to familiarize yourself with all the information that is displayed in the dashboard.

Misleading information on excess mortality

Mortality has been the subject of much debate recently following news of excess mortality in Iceland in published data from the statistical office of the European Union, Eurostat. Eurostat's presentation and methods have caused a significant overestimation of some months' mortality rate in Iceland. The Directorate of Health sought clarification from Statistics Iceland and published news on the issue at the end of November.

As stated in the news, Eurostat's monthly figures are estimated from weekly death figures from Statistics Iceland, but weeks tend to overlap at the end of the month and figures can fluctuate considerably in a small population. In addition, Eurostat uses methods to compensate for the number of deaths due to presumed delayed reporting of deaths. Thus, it has been estimated that the most recent week, in submitted data from Iceland at any given time, only contains 60% of the actual number of deaths. Statistics Iceland submits data on weekly deaths to Eurostat every month when at least 30 days have passed since the end of the last reported week. Statistics Iceland has shown that information on more than 99% of deaths has been sent to the National Registry by that time. The Directorate of Health and Statistics Iceland hopes that EUROSTAT will review the calculation methods for Iceland.

Statistics on causes of death in 2022 will be published when all the data for deaths in 2022 have been received and registered in the Causes of Death Register (probably in April).

The Medical Director of Health
Chief Epidemiologist

Thanks to the division of Health Information, in particular Jón Óskar Guðlaugsson.

For further information, please contact Kjartan Hreinn Njálsson, assistant to the Medical Director of Health